China's Bicycles Are Us
An unpublished op-ed essay written in June, 2004
By Charles Komanoff
Back when China was still an exotic
destination, one of the most exotic things about
it, for Americans, was the fact that people got
around on bicycles. Lately, however, we've been
hearing that China seems eager to "disappear" its
two-wheelers and replace them with automobiles.
To hasten this automotive Great Leap
Forward, the authorities in Beijing, Shanghai and
other cities have begun closing major
thoroughfares to bikes. "The bicycle is beginning
to fade from the streets of urban China," one
observer noted in 2000, "marking a small,
although not insignificant, transformation of
Chinese life."
Whether the transformation of quiet, free-
flowing bicycle boulevards into cacophonous,
gridlocked streets is a minor matter for China is
debatable. What is beyond question is that
replacing China's half-a-billion human-powered
bicycles with oil-burning automobiles will have
profound consequences for the entire planet, and
particularly for the United States.
In fact, we are already seeing some of these
consequences, in this year's run-up in gasoline
prices. Even after last week's 6 cent-a-gallon
price drop, U.S. pump prices are almost 50 cents
a gallon higher than a year ago. There are other
factors, from attacks on oilfields in the Mideast
to the ongoing mania for gas-guzzlers in the
U.S., but the burgeoning Chinese automobile
fleet is unquestionably part of the picture.
There are now 65% more cars in China than
there were four years ago, and they consume an
additional 400,000 barrels a day of gasoline and
diesel fuel. This increase accounts for one-tenth
of the rise in world oil usage since 2000 -- not a
game-breaker, but enough to keep prices high,
particularly when markets are jittery to begin
with. Had Chinese auto use grown only half as
much, the world crude price might well be a few
dollars a barrel lower, and gasoline as much as a
nickel a gallon cheaper.
But that's just the beginning. In its headlong
pursuit of the U.S. development model, China
has 500 million bicycles to get rid of. Replacing
just half of them with cars, even with hybrid
models averaging 40 miles a gallon, will swell
world oil demand by more than 4 million barrels
a day -- enough to soak up half of Saudi
Arabia's current production.
To be sure, China is only embarking on the
same transformation the U.S. underwent a
century ago, from bicycle and trolley to the
Model T, from urban street to suburban cul-de-
sac.
Progress, it's called, but at a cost. The leading
causes of premature death in America are linked
to over-reliance on cars: cancer and respiratory
failure from smog, injuries from road-traffic
accidents, and heart disease, stroke, and diabetes
from physical inactivity. China is now sliding
down the same slope, with three times as many
road deaths as the U.S., and a marked increase in
obesity.
And of course there's climate havoc to
contend with. If Houston's rate of gasoline use is
duplicated across China, world carbon dioxide
emissions will rise by one-quarter. That will
doom any effort to limit greenhouse gases.
There may still be a chance to avert this
calamity. Even with the meteoric growth in car
use, 95 percent of trips in Chinese cities are still
made via transit, cycling and walking. If driving
can be held below "tipping" levels, the
efficiency, safety and dignity of these modes
might yet be preserved, creating a virtuous cycle
in which the car is only one option among many.
What should China do? Tax gasoline and driving to
reflect their environmental and social
costs. Restore Beijing's bicycle boulevards.
Enact and enforce full, Euro-style traffic-law
protection for cyclists.
What can Americans do to help? Start giving
China a working model of prosperity that is also
sustainable. Aim higher than "green" cars. De-
subsidize autos and suburbs with stiff taxes on
driving and gasoline. And, finally, get out of the
car and ride a bike.
